By DYLAN DE JONG 

A Wimmera farmer’s confidence of a second consecutive strong harvest is strengthening following a wetter than average start to the cropping season coupled with the possibility of a key climate driver influencing greater rain later in the year.   

The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal winter outlook indicates the likelihood of a drier than average June as a result of a positive phase of the Seasonal Annular Mode, SAM, weather pattern.  

But forecasters have early predictions of a wetter July due to warming ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, which is likely to carry moisture south across much of Australia during the later winter months.  

The bureau’s autumn summary indicates many locations across the Wimmera and southern Mallee received above average or average rain. 

Horsham Aerodrome, Mount William in the Grampians, Edenhope Airport and Hopetoun observation stations all recorded above average rain of 109.6, 311.44, 127.7 and 120.6mm respectively during autumn. 

Bureau forecasters are also starting to see early indications of a La Niña weather pattern forming in the Pacific Ocean, which is likely to cause wetter spring months for the Eastern seaboard of Australia. 

Victorian Farmers Federation Warracknabeal branch president David Drage, who finished cropping last week, said a wetter start to 2020 had given him greater confidence his barley, canola, wheat and vetch crops would endure a drier June. “We had such a wet March and April,” he said.

“It gives us confidence crops will have the best chance. We have a lot of potential with the start we’ve had. 

“June being cold and dry, if crops are established, we can handle a dry June – we’ll get through it.”

Frost worry

Mr Drage said a key concern was the continuation of frosts through the winter months, likely to negatively affect his crops. 

“If July and August are dry, that’s probably a bigger worry,” he said. 

“Frosts could do some damage if they continue. If we get stuck in a frost cycle later in the season, that’s a big concern.”

Mr Drage said if a La Niña weather pattern formed in spring, it would set him up for a strong finish at harvest time and boost overall soil moisture levels for the following year. 

“A La Niña in the later half of the year will give us good conditions for crops to finish off and produce their maximum yield,” he said. 

“It helps in the recharge for the following year too, because our subsoil is still fairly dry. 

“We’re going to harvest every bit of moisture that’s in the soil this year. 

“Unless we have a wet winter, we’re still going to be hand to mouth for the next year when it comes to rain events.”

Bureau senior climatologist Felicity Gamble said forecasters would continue to closely analyse weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean. 

“We are monitoring the Pacific Ocean fairly closely at the moment because there have been early indicators of La Niña developing – we tend to say these events occur every two to five years,” she said. 

“We’re seeing pooling of ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific, which is often the first hint of something happening there. 

“It does look like if it were to develop it would be mid to late spring.” 

Ms Gamble said July was likely to see the return of wetter weather.  “When we get to July, we start to see a return to a driver that’s been influencing since the start of the year – warmer ocean patterns to Australia’s northwest,” she said. 

“This driver generally means there’s more moisture provided for the atmosphere that then gets drawn into our cold front and rain bearing systems as they come across the south during our winter months.”

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